The Conservatives are still on course for victory


X Marks the spot

Dont believe the opinion polls which suggest that the Conservative lead is slipping. My blog posts on The Secrets of Democracy and Voting and The Secrets of Electoral Opinion Polls will explain my views on how the system works and what the polls are really saying.

In short, Conservative voters are more likely to actually actually turn up to vote than Labour voters, who will be busy tweeting and posting on facebook telling others to vote.

In my view a victory for Theresa May is bad for all of us (even most Conservative voters).

After a long time we actually have a choice between two visions of the UK and I support a fairer country that does not create chaos around the world.

Unfortunately this has been quite successfully targetted by a successful media campaign and we actually have a situation where someone saying they do not want to murder millions is considered a bad thing. The Conservative Michael Fallon has even gone on radio and stated he is willing to use nuclear weapons first.

The Conservative media campaign has been quite successful in targetting Labour. Despite Labour looking to invest in the UK and the conservatives less so, too many people think the figures are pie in the sky and based on propaganda support the Conservative message of austerity thinking that this will result in prosperity.

However I do not think this is true.

The Conservative party is presenting a bad deal to older voters which in my mind breaks a central social contract that was made a long time ago – you pay taxes when you are fit and healthy and working and you get cared for when you reach old age – but this does not seem to have had any impact on the older voters who are more afraid of imaginary IRA links and other scare stories.

It is annoying how Conservative scare tactics have worked in this election campaign and before. Their pledges are uncosted and will ending costing a lot more than people expect, all without investment in the UK.

The plan to cut immigration to 100,000 or less (now suggested to be reached within 5 years) will cost the economy billions.

Having no deal with Europe will also cost billions, hurt business and lose jobs. It will be cheaper for multinationals to move to mainland europe and avoid tarriffs that will be incurred under Theresa May’s “No deal is better than a bad deal” mantra. The mantra is ofcourse also wrong – no deal IS a bad deal.

For younger people it is a no brainer – one party is offering debt exceeding £27k if you have the aspiration to study. The other doesnt and wants to develop and educated society with a National Education Service allowing io=ncreased later in life education and retraining too.

Too many people are refusing to support Labour based on successful Conservative propagnda. The conservative agenda only works for you are rich and healthy. For everyone else its like turkeys voting for Christmas.

I expect a teary Conservative voter on Question Time a few months after the election complaining that the Conservatives have done exactly what they promised to do and how it has caused personal harm. Stuff that people before the elections think will only affect other people, not them.


I am glad that the full extent of the prediction has not panned out – yet. The DUP might enable the Conservatives to do all that they want.
Or the Conservatives may be humbled by their experience. But I doubt that.

"For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'" - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister. 13 May 2015.